Why You Should De-Value Closers

We’re coming off the second consecutive “Year Of The Pitcher.”  I don’t need to get into a lot of statistics to prove a fact that everyone already knows: scoring has been down in the Majors over the past two seasons, and there are more pitchers having success than we’ve seen in a long time.

There has to be some fallout in fantasy baseball from the change in offensive production.  During the past year, I’ve seen the following ideas floated by experts at various sites:

1. Take more pitchers in the early rounds of drafts because there are some truly excellent talents out there.  You need multiple elite starters to keep up with the competition.

2. Take more hitters early in drafts.  There’s a deeper pool of talented pitchers than ever, so grab the few hitters that are still sure things and dominate the offensive categories.  There will be plenty of serviceable arms available later on.

I’m not buying either of those plans.  You can’t ignore the pool of elite starters and expect to compete with owners that have two of them.  You also can’t expect to compete in the hitting categories without several early-round picks, even if offensive production is down.  I see a different shift necessary to adjust to our new reality…

Kimbrel is the only closer to consider early in 2012 drafts.

Devalue Closers.

For years, owners who haven’t put in the necessary statistical research have claimed that closers are one-category players not worthy of their usual draft slots.  I’ve always argued against that line of thinking.  When fantasy teams were posting ERA’s close to 4.00, a closer with a 2.30 ERA carried a lot of weight, even if he only pitched 70 innings.  The same was true in the WHIP category.  However, as fantasy teams start posting ERA’s that are closer to 3.00 than 4.00, the added value of a closer with a 2.30 ERA becomes lower and lower.

It’s not the closers’ fault — there just isn’t much room for them to improve.  Elite closers have been routinely posting sub-2.50 ERA’s and WHIP’s around 1.00-1.10 for years.  Average closers could always offer an ERA in the 3.00’s and a WHIP in the 1.20’s.  Those numbers used to be helpful in offsetting the weaker starting pitchers on a fantasy baseball staff, but that’s no longer the case.

Now that several starters are posting sub-3.00 ERA’s  every season and many more are keeping their marks below 4.00, most closers have, in fact, become one-category specialists.   This has to decrease their value.

For the past 15 years, I owned an elite closer on almost every one of my fantasy baseball teams.  And I almost always paired that elite closer with a second closer from the middle of the pack. I was fine with spending two picks in the first 10 rounds on closers, and that strategy worked on several first-place teams.  This year, I’ll follow a different plan most of the time, trading in my elite closer for another elite starter.  I’ll let at least 10-12 closers come off the board before I consider taking one.  I still plan on drafting two closers because I don’t want to chase saves, but I’m not going to pay for the elite stoppers.

There is one exception to my plan this season: Craig Kimbrel.  Kimbrel is a rare talent at the closer position, as his elite strikeout rate separates him from the other top firemen.  The right-hander has a reasonable chance to lead all closers in ERA, WHIP, saves and punchouts.  We rarely see such a dominant young arm at this position, and that makes him worthy of an early pick.  The next group of closers –- Storen, Axford, Rivera etc. … no thanks.

A change in offensive eras means a change in draft strategy. Devaluing closers is the smartest way to put a greater emphasis on the deep pool of talented starters without neglecting the hitters that you need to dominate your league.