2011 All-Breakout Team Hitters

If you had a few of these players on your roster, you likely won your league this season and looked like a genius to all your competitors.

But you can’t live in the past.  Let’s take a look at the hitters on the 2011 All-Breakout Team and determine who you should target and who you should avoid in 2012.

Avila is only 24, but has already joined the top tier at his position.

Catcher: Alex Avila

2011 Stats: .295 AVG, 19 HR, 63 R, 82 RBI, 3 SB

The Skinny: Avila was a late-round selection in some mixed leagues and started the season on waivers in many shallow formats.  He ended up playing in the 2011 All-Star Game and, if not for a late season power outage, he likely would have secured a 20 homer, .300 AVG  season.

2012 Outlook:  At age 24, Avila may not have peaked yet.  It’ll be hard for him to significantly improve on his 2011 numbers, but his first and second half splits were very similar, so a regression seems unlikely.  He could score more runs if the Tigers move him up in the batting order, as he usually hit seventh or lower this season.  Consider Avila a top-five catcher for 2012.

First Base: Michael Morse

2011 Stats: .303 AVG, 31 HR, 73 R, 95 RBI, 2 SB

The Skinny: Morse finished with a flurry, going deep four times in his last six games to top 30 homers.  The 29-year-old hit .224 with one homer in April and was on waivers in most mixed leagues at the start of May, making his final totals even more impressive.  His numbers across the board — including walk and strikeout rates — were very similar in the first and second half.

2012 Outlook: This is a bat to believe in!  Morse homered 15 times while hitting .289 in 266 at-bats in 2010.  He simply needed more playing time to become a dominant slugger, and the Nats finally gave it to him.  There’s little reason to expect fewer than 25 homers next season.

Second Base: Ryan Roberts

2011 Stats: .249 AVG, 19 HR, 86 R, 65 RBI, 18 SB

The Skinny: Roberts spent most of his time at the hot corner but retained his second base eligibility by making 28 appearances in the middle of the diamond.  The 31-year-old had never previously reached eight homers or eight steals in a season, so this breakout was very surprising.  His grand slam on the second-to-last day of the regular season was one of the most memorable moments of the D-backs’ NL West title run.

2012 Outlook: With a .249 average, Roberts doesn’t have a lot of room to regress before he would find a place on the bench.  At age 31, there’s plenty of reason to be skeptical of this breakout performer, especially since he only swiped five bags while hitting .239 in the second half.  Don’t expect a repeat of his 2011 numbers —  something in the range of a .250 AVG with 15 HR and 10 SB, seems more reasonable.

Third Base: Emilio Bonifacio

2011 Stats:  .296 AVG, 5 HR, 78 R, 36 RBI, 40 SB

The Skinny: Bonifacio exploded in July, hitting .380 with 16 steals.  He also hit .339 in September, leaving Marlins management and fantasy owners with the impression that his midseason breakout wasn’t a fluke.  Manager Jack McKeon gave him the green light and with 40 swipes in 51 attempts, it proved to be a wise decision.

2012 Outook: Bonifacio’s 78 percent success rate on stolen base attempts should be good enough to keep him running at the start of next season. The big key for Bonifacio will be maintaining his gains in batting average, as a .296 mark was 35 points higher than his previous career-best.  If the infielder slumps back down to the .260 range, his stolen base opportunities will greatly diminish.  Fantasy owners who predict another 40-steal season will be taking a sizable risk.

Cabrera displayed surprising power in 2011.

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera

2011 Stats: .273 BA, 25 HR, 87 R, 92 RBI, 17 SB

The Skinny: Cabrera hadn’t hit more than six homers in any previous campaign and at age 25, had settled into the “light hitting middle infielder” label.  The steals and batting average weren’t surprising given that he finally stayed healthy enough to exceed 550 at-bats, but the home run total — and the RBIs it helped produce –made Cabrera an unlikely source of power from the shortstop position.

2012 Outlook: Cabrera managed to spread out his long balls evenly throughout the season, giving fantasy owners hope that they can count on another 20-homer campaign.  However, his batting average dipped to .244 in the second half.  That could have been the result of nagging injuries, or it could have been reflective of a change in approach in an effort to knock more balls out of the park.  It’s unlikely that Cabrera will take another step forward in 2012, and some regression wouldn’t be surprising.

Outfield: Melky Cabera, Alex Gordon, Jeff Francoeur

2011 Stats:
Cabera: .305 AVG, 18 HR, 102 R, 87 RBI, 20 SB
Gordon: .303 AVG, 23 HR, 101 R, 87 RBI, 17 SB
Francoeur: .285 AVG, 20 HR, 77 R, 87 RBI, 22 SB

The Skinny: Gordon was a late-round flier for some, but Cabrera and Francoeur started the season on waivers in almost all leagues.  All three players finished among the top 15 outfielders, making the Royals lineup one of the biggest stories in fantasy baseball.  Manger Ned Yost maintained an aggressive approach on the basepaths, which allowed all three players to reach career highs in steals.  The Royals finished 10th in the Majors in runs scored, and these three players paved the way by far surpassing expectations in runs scored and RBIs.

2012 Outlook:  While the numbers recorded by all three players were quite similar, it wouldn’t be fair to paint them all with the same brush going forward.  Gordon likely has the most 2012 potential of the troika.  His effectiveness on the basepaths improved in the second half, as did his batting average.  The former top prospect could push his numbers even higher next season.  Cabera hit .322 in the second half, but his homers and steals didn’t follow suit.  There are rumors that he could be winter trade bait to open a spot for Lorenzo Cain, and Melky would lose a lot of value on another team.  Yost’s aggressive approach and willingness to bat Cabrera second in the order boosts the outfielder’s value significantly.  Francoeur stole the most bases in this group, but with just seven swipes in 13 second half attempts, it’s possible that he won’t get the green light as often next season.  To sum it up: expect Gordon to repeat his 2011 numbers while Cabrera and Francoeur will likely see some degree of decline.

Check back soon for the 2011 All-Breakout Team pitchers!